Scandinavian Elections: Betting Options for 2018 and Beyond
2017 has been a very active year for anyone involved in political betting with elections right across Europe and beyond. Countries went to the Polls right across the continent and millions were staked on results in France, the Netherlands, the UK and Germany.
We have no definite date for a vote in Denmark as yet but prices are already out and at this point there are some interesting figures available. Meanwhile, as 2018 rolls in, we have confirmed polls in Finland and then in Sweden.
It’s going to be a busy period for bettors and bookmakers and at this early stage, let’s see what options we have.
The last General Election in Denmark was held in 2015 and as such, we may need to wait for four further years before another poll is necessary. There have been isolated suggestions of an early vote however and prices have been available from certain bookmakers for some time.
The current Prime Minister in Denmark is Lars Lokke Rasmussen who is leader of the centre right liberal party Venstre. Rasmussen actually leads a minority government and in fact, Venstre currently hold just 34 seats in the Danish Parliament which is known as the Folketing. That makes them only the third largest party in terms of seats but their ability to form an agreement with others in the so-called Blue Bloc, allowed Venstre and Rasmussen to claim leadership.
The bookmakers don’t expect the current Prime Minister to be in power after the next election however and Rasmussen is out at a top price of 5/2 with Unibet and EnergyBet to be returned.
The favourite in this respect is Mette Frederiksen whose Social Democrat Party currently has the most seats in the Folketing. With 47 seats and a 26.3% share of the vote, she is on offer at best odds of 7/10 with EnergyBet and Bet365 to be the next Danish Prime Minister following the General Election.
Other options here include Kristian Thulesen Dahl of the Danish People’s party who comes in at best odds of 11/1 with Unibet. Dahl’s party are somewhere in the centre of politics in Denmark and they actually outstrip the ruling Venstre with the second largest share of the seats in parliament.
Dahl could therefore be an option but his chances seem somewhat remote. The betting looks to be between those three names but if you move through the full list then you could also take Soren Pape at 75/1 with Unibet or Morten Ostegaard at 100/1 with EnergyBet. Interestingly, EnergyBet seem to have taken a leaf out of Paddy Power’s book here by quoting some novelty options.
These include Danish sporting stars such as Michael Laudrup, Caroline Wozniacki and Nicklas Bendtner, all of whom can be backed at 1000/1.
Back to serious business and if you do get involved here, remember that the market is for the next Danish Prime Minister and not who the ruling party may be. Voting and the polls are so tight in Denmark that it’s likely that no-one will receive a complete majority and the person with the most votes will need to seek coalitions or form a minority government.
Mette Frederiksen and the Social Democrats seem best placed to do that at this time but there could be some excellent value here, bearing in mind that it may be another two years before an election is called.
Unlike Denmark, we already have a date for the next Finnish election and the country will go to the polls on January 28, 2018. According to the markets, we have a very short priced favourite but is there any value in side betting or any potential for an upset?
The current President is Sauli Niinisto of the National Coalition Party. He was elected in the previous vote back in 2012 but as a twist this year, the 69 year old is now seeking a further term as an independent candidate.
Clearly Niinisto is a very popular President as, despite this move, Unibet have him listed at odds of 3/100 to be re-elected in January. As you would expect on the back of that sort of price, the chasing pack are very distant.
At present, only Unibet are listing prices for this election and it may be because this is seen as a foregone conclusion. However, if you are looking at options beyond Sauli Niinisto as the next President of Finland then you can back Pekka Haavisto at 11/1, Laura Huhtasaari at 14/1 and Matti Vanhanen at 19/1. Just to clarify again, all of those prices are with Unibet.
To further put those prices into perspective we can take a look at the opinion polls. Out of seven surveys carried out between April and October 2017, the current President Niinisto has a share of the vote that ranges between 60% and 76%. Behind him, Pakka Haavisto of the Green Party has a maximum from across those polls of 19%.
We’ve seen a number of shocks from political markets in the last 18 months but this would be a huge surprise if the market was upset. Nothing is ever guaranteed of course but Sauli Niinisto seems a fairly safe bet here.
Concluding our round up of elections from around Scandinavia takes us to Sweden where once again, the vote has already been confirmed. Swedes will go to the polls on September 9, 2018 where they will look to elect members of their national law making assembly which is known as the Riksdag.
That parliament is made up of a total of 349 MPs and they are elected by Proportional Representation and here you have a number of options, starting with the party who will receive the most number of votes. As things currently stand in the Riksdag, the Social Democrat Party have 113 seats and the highest share of government right now and they lead the 2018 market at best odds of 7/10 with EnergyBet.
It’s relatively close in Sweden in terms of number of seats with Ulf Kristersson having a total of 84 but his Moderate Party are out at a top price of 8/1 with EnergyBet. In between those two figures we have a best of 15/4 on the Sweden Democrats and that number comes from Unibet.
That party, led by Jimmie Akeson, has just 49 seats and 12.9% of the votes right now but polls indicate that they may just edge out the moderates when the time comes for a further vote.
There are lots of parties in contention although it’s all likely to come down to a battle between these three. Other options, for the sake of political balance, include the Greens at 1000/1 with EnergyBet and the Christian Democrats at a very distant 1500/1 with Unibet.
While the favourite here isn’t quite as short as his Finnish counterpart, it does look at this stage that Stefan Lovfen and his Social Democrat Party are the obvious bet although there may be some value here in the second and third placed candidates.
Alternatively, Unibet have a set of seven side markets open and these relate to the share of votes that some of the parties may expect to gain. For example, if you feel that the Greens will claim over 4% of the total vote then you can get odds of 1/2 with Unibet while anyone betting under that 4% mark can currently get 7/5 with the same bookmaker.
Similar options are open with Unibet for the Sweden Democrats, the Christian Democrats, the Left, the Liberals, the Centre and the Social Democrats.
Unibet are a proud Scandinavian bookmaker so it’s no surprise to see them get behind political betting across the region. Elsewhere, EnergyBet and Bet365 have some markets too and they may be joined by other operators as these events draw closer.
For now, there are some good prices available for anyone looking to take a very early ante post bet on elections in Sweden, Finland or Denmark for 2018 and beyond.