Poland v Colombia: Must Win Game for Group Favourites

Attention! Actual odds referenced are correct at time of publishing at 12:04 pm June 22, 2018 and are subject to change.

We’ve already seen a number of shock results at the start of Russia 2018 but in Group H, both of the favourites to win the section slumped to embarrassing opening defeats. Those results mean that whoever loses Sunday’s game will be on the plane back home and that would be a humiliating outcome for either Poland or Colombia.

A draw may just be enough to keep both sides in the hunt but this match in Kazan has something of a ‘winner takes all’ feel to it.

Match Odds

All three possible results are priced above the Even Money mark with Colombia starting as favourites for the win at best odds of 7/5 with MarathonBet. The draw follows at a top price of 5/2 with William Hill while victory for Poland completes this market at 27/11 with 10Bet.

Colombia would argue that they would have beaten Group H outsiders Japan had they kept eleven men on the pitch and the first half sending off of Carlos Sanchez certainly affected Jose Pekerman’s side. Poland faced tougher opponents in Senegal who were tipped by many to progress from this group before a ball was kicked.

There are arguments for both sides but it’s actually very difficult to make a verdict based on those opening displays so before we make our tips, let’s look at the individual players who can make a difference.

Individual Goal Scorers

Robert Lewandowski

The key strikers on both sides produced subdued performances in those openers so Colombia Radamel Falcao and Poland’s Robert Lewandowski need to improve. For Sunday’s match, Falcao is the slight favourite to open the scoring at 4/1 with Unibet and SportingBet while Lewandowski follows at best odds of 9/2 with MarathonBet.

As we move through the list, other options include Miguel Borja and Jose Izquierdo who can both be claimed at the same top price of 17/2 with SportingBet while Poland’s Arkadiusz Milik is available at a tempting best of 8/1 with Boylesports.

Elsewhere, there could be some interest in Colombia’s James Rodriguez at 13/2 with SportingBet. 2014’s Golden Boot winner was curiously left on the bench for that loss to Japan but surely he will feature from the start in a critical game.

Another potential punt here could involve either Juan Cuadrado at best odds of 9/1 with Boylesports or Juan Quintero at a top price of 10/1 with SportingBet. Quintero scored Colombia’s only goal in that 1-2 reverse at the hands of the Japanese and could be a strong contender in the anytime market at a best of 7/2 with Sun Bets.

Our first confirmed tip comes in the anytime market and this involves James Rodriguez. He is available here at 12/5 with Unibet and while it’s tempting to go for the Real Madrid man to open the scoring, there is that nagging concern that head coach Pekerman will leave him on the bench again.

Other Side Bets:

At least both Poland and Colombia managed to find the target in those opening games so we’ll firstly look at Both Teams to Score which is available at a top price of 19/20 with 10Bet and SportPesa.

It’s not a certain punt by any means but with each side effectively needing a win we should see more attacking intent and we do have those world class attackers in either camp.

Looking at other popular side markets, backing Over 2.5 goals would bring in best odds of 127/100 with MarathonBet and that seems a reasonable option. Neither team is expected to be especially prolific at Russia 2018 but this bet would have landed in both of their respective opening matches and that price is an improvement on the BTTS figure.

Over 2.5 Goals may be the safer of our three tips in a game that looks exceptionally hard to call. Based on form in World Cup qualifying, we had backed Poland to be inspired by Robert Lewandowski to win this group while the striker himself looked a value punt in the Golden Boot market at 33/1.

Lewandowski and the whole of this Polish side need a big performance on Sunday. Colombia looked marginally stronger in their opener and they were a man down but based partly on the fact that South America teams are playing so badly in Russia, we’ll take Poland for the win.

A Correct Score bet of 2-1 in favour of the Poles could be added at 23/2 with either Unibet or 10Bet but we’ll stick with these three suggestions and hope for a profitable 90 minutes.

Best Bets:

  • Poland to win at 27/11 with 10Bet
  • James Rodriguez to score anytime at 12/5 with Unibet
  • Over 2.5 Goals at 127/100 with MarathonBet
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