Germany v Sweden: Must Win Game for Defending Champions

Attention! Actual odds referenced are correct at time of publishing at 11:42 am June 20, 2018 and are subject to change.

Germany came into this World Cup as a general 9/2 chance to win the tournament and although that put them marginally behind favourites Brazil, Joachim Low’s side were highly fancied to defend their crown.

Defeat to Mexico has, however, left the Germans with a game against Sweden that is simply vital. We’ve billed it as a must win and while some may disagree with that theory, it’s certainly a contest that they cannot afford to lose.

Match Odds

Germany remain clear favourites to beat Sweden in Sochi on Saturday and you can currently back the reigning World Champions at best odds of 4/9 with William Hill and Unibet. The draw follows this at a top price of 4/1 with BetFred while victory for Sweden is quoted at a best of 8/1 with BetFred once again.

Surprises can still happen in world football but it was the nature of that defeat that will concern the Germans. Low’s side created enough chances but equally, Mexico had plenty of opportunities to inflict an even more embarrassing loss on their opponents.

We’d still be looking to back a Germany win over the Swedes but the favourites need a vastly improved performance.

Individual Goal Scorers

Timo Werner

One of the players needing to raise his game is young German striker Timo Werner who looked lively against the Mexicans but couldn’t quite find his radar. RB Leipzig striker Werner remains favourite to score first in Saturday’s game at 7/2 with Unibet, ahead of Mario Gomez at best odds of 4/1 with SportingBet.

Team selection could be important here and while Werner started the game against Mexico, could the manager prefer the experience of Gomez for this important clash with Sweden? With some doubt over that issue, it may be safer to back Thomas Muller, who is a certain starter and available at 9/2 with Unibet to open the scoring.

There’s a lack of Swedish names in this market and their first player on this list is striker Marcus Berg who is out at best odds of 12/1 with Unibet and 888Sport to open the scoring. Meanwhile, Andreas Granqvist, who scored the only goal from the spot against the South Koreans, could be a tempter at a top price of 33/1 with BetFred.

In this section we’re opting for Thomas Muller who has been a consistent scorer for the Germans and comes into this game with 38 international goals. You could take Muller in the anytime market at a best of 17/10 with Unibet and 888Sport but we’ll be braver and take the Bayern Munich man to open the scoring.

Other Side Bets

The popular Both Teams to Score market usually carries odds on prices for a Yes vote but not this time. BTTS is available for this game at a best of 117/100 with MarathonBet while those wanting to bet No can get 3/4 with Boylesports.

That’s partly due to the fact that Germany and Sweden managed just one goal between them in their opening games at Russia 2018 but it’s largely down to the Swedes making hard work of their win against South Korea.

Sweden may not contribute too much themselves but if, as we predict, Germany react positively to that opening defeat, there should be action in front of one goal at least so instead of BTTS, we’re backing over 3.5 goals which is available at best odds of 12/5 with Unibet.

As a final tip, we haven’t gone too risky in terms of Correct Score betting lately so we’ll change that around and take a smaller wager on Germany 3 Sweden 1 which is quoted at a top price of 12/1 with 10Bet and 888Sport.

We haven’t mentioned Sweden too much in this preview and that’s not intended to show the Scandinavians any disrespect. They won their opening game against the South Koreans in what was a fairly workmanlike performance but do they have the flair to match better opponents?

Germany need to improve, that’s obvious, but we’ve seen them do it before and they should have more than enough to take maximum points here. Their win odds of 4/9 are too short for comfort though so, we’ll just stay with these side bets for Saturday’s crucial fixture.

Best Bets:

  • Thomas Muller to score the first goal at 9/2 with Unibet
  • Over 3.5 Goals at 12/5 with Unibet
  • Correct Score of Germany 3 Sweden 1 at 12/1 with 10Bet
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