F1 Mexican Grand Prix 2018: Odds and Betting Preview
The 2018 Formula One season is alive but only just after Kimi Raikkonen’s shock win in the United States last weekend. Victory put the Finn into third place in the Drivers’ Championship, behind Sebastian Vettel and our leader Lewis Hamilton.
The Mercedes man now has a 70 point gap over Vettel in second place and a successful defence of his title is now a formality. This weekend we’re heading down to Mexico and with the outright bets effectively over, we’ll focus on finding some winners within the race itself.
Men to Beat
As we’ve seen in a number of recent races, Sebastian Vettel starts as favourite ahead of his rival. The German can be backed for Mexico at 28/17 with MarathonBet while Lewis Hamilton follows at 15/8 with Ladbrokes and Coral.
Vettel was fourth after a grid penalty last time out while Hamilton came back in third so neither man would have been satisfied with their efforts in the US. Of the two, only Hamilton has won this event so perhaps those numbers are a little surprising.
Behind the top two we have our customary gap to the chasing pack which is led this week by Max Verstappen at best odds of 5/1 with William Hill. The market then drifts even further with last week’s winner Kimi Raikkonen available at a top price of 10/1 with Black Type and 10Bet, followed by Daniel Ricciardo at a best of 12/1 with 888Sport and William Hill.
The remaining driver from the ‘Big Six’ is Valtteri Bottas, Hamilton’s teammate at Mercedes is given little chance at best odds of 16/1 with Ladbrokes and Royal Panda. Part of the thinking behind that price is the likelihood of Bottas giving way to Hamilton if he is leading the race.
We then move back to the least likely winners – a distant pack led by Charles Leclerc, Esteban Ocon and Kevin Magnussen at 1500/1 with William Hill and Betway. We’ll swiftly move on from there and look for some options among the side bets.
Other Betting Options
The outright bets for both the Drivers’ Championship and the Constructors’ Championship have effectively been decided so we’re bypassing those and looking at our regular side bets for Mexico. In regards to pole position betting, Lewis Hamilton has started to dominate here and has finished at the front of the grid for the last two Grand Prix.
The Mercedes man has also won pole in six of the last nine outings but it’s Sebastian Vettel who sneaks ahead here once again at best odds of 6/4 with SportingBet. Hamilton follows at a top price of 13/8 with William Hill while Max Verstappen is close at 9/2 with SportingBet before we get another gap to Kimi Raikkonen at a best of 10/1 with William Hill and Royal Panda.
Completing the list of more likely contenders for this market are Daniel Ricciardo and Valtteri Bottas who can both be picked up at the same top price of 14/1 with SportingBet.
In regards to fastest lap, Hamilton also claimed this accolade in the US last weekend but over the course of the season, this has been much harder to predict. For Mexico, both Hamilton and Vettel are locked at the same price in some places but elsewhere, the German is a very narrow favourite at best odds of 11/4 with SportingBet.
Hamilton follows at a top price of 3/1 with Boylesports before we get to Daniel Ricciardo who is quoted at a best of 11/4 with Boylesports once again. Max Verstappen comes along at best odds of 9/2, also with Boylesports before we get to two 9/1 shots – Kimi Raikkonen with SportingBet and Valtteri Bottas with 188Bet.
As with the Pole Position market, you could look beyond the six favourites but prices suggest you might be wasting your time. Kevin Magnussen took the fastest lap in Singapore but the Dane is among a clutch of drivers listed at best odds of 100/1 with Ladbrokes and Coral and that Singapore instance is the only time that anyone outside of the Big Six has claimed any of our three main markets.
The Mexican Grand Prix returned to the circuit in 2015 after a 23 year absence. Nico Rosberg won that 2015 edition, followed by Lewis Hamilton twelve months later before Max Verstappen took the honours last year.
In 2017, Sebastian Vettel started at the front of the grid and he also claimed the fastest lap so perhaps that’s why he is getting some short prices from the bookies in our three featured markets. Max Verstappen is also getting some backing from the sportsbooks and that’s to be expected, based on his victory here twelve months ago.
In that 2017 race, we saw Lewis Hamilton drop away after a sustained set of wins had seen him claim the driver’s title the week before. He hasn’t quite secured the outright win this time but having already put in the hard work, he may be coasting once again.
It’s quite an open race and while we have a slight preference for Sebastian Vettel, we’re staying with these side markets. Hamilton is dominating qualifying and should claim another Pole and while Bottas for Fastest Lap is more of a punt, odds of 9/1 are generous to say the least.
Best Bets for Mexican Grand Prix 2018:
- Lewis Hamilton to start on Pole at 13/8 with William Hill
- Valtteri Bottas to record the Fastest Lap at 9/1 with 188Bet