Chelsea v Southampton: Can Saints Spring a Shock in Sunday’s Semi?

Attention! Actual odds referenced are correct at time of publishing at 10:21 am April 20, 2018 and are subject to change.

While Manchester United vs Spurs may be the ‘glamour tie’ of this weekend’s FA Cup semi finals, Sunday’s game between Chelsea and Southampton may look more straightforward. However, it is worth remembering that the Saints gave Antonio Conte’s men a stiff test in the league just a week ago and this is a time to bring in all the footballing clichés about form going out of the window etc.

However, even if you feel that Chelsea, who are heavily odds on to win in 90 minutes, will deliver a tiny return on that basis, you can still get some value in the side markets so let’s get on and take a look at some prices on what is a busy weekend for the football betting fraternity.

Match Odds

Chelsea start things off at best odds of 53/100 with MarathonBet to win in normal time with 1/2 a more common price elsewhere. Meanwhile, the draw is available at a top price of 15/4 with Unibet and the same bookmaker has the best numbers on a Southampton win at 13/2.

Those are the prices for the 90 minute market and if you want to take a look at the To Qualify betting, Chelsea shorten to best odds of 1/4 with William Hill and Sun Bets while Southampton are out at a top price of 7/2 with Unibet and 888Sport.

Last weekend, the Saints took a 2-0 lead before Chelsea finally hauled it back to win 3-2 late on. That result contributes to a contrasting set of form guides with Chelsea showing three wins and two defeats in their last six with Southampton having four losses and just one victory in the same period of time.

And, if you look a little deeper into those stats, you’ll see that Chelsea’s two defeats were against strong sides in Spurs and Barcelona while Southampton’s only win came against League One Wigan in the previous round of the FA Cup competition.

Odds and stats may point to Chelsea but before we confirm a verdict, let’s move on and consider some alternative bets.

Individual Goal Scorers

Eden Hazard

The first goalscorer betting market is completely dominated by Chelsea players and it’s led by attacking midfielder Eden Hazard who is currently available at best odds of 17/4 with Unibet and 888Sport. Following on from that price are the two main strikers – Olivier Giroud and Alvaro Morata – who can both be picked up at the same top price of 9/2 with bet365. The issue with those two lies in deciding who will start the game as it would be a surprise if Conte’s starting XI had more than one main striker involved.

Other possibilities in this first goalscorer market include Willian at 13/2 with Boylesports and, if you ignore other Chelsea substitutes, we now come to Southampton’s first representatives.

Both Charlie Austin and Manolo Gabbiadini are available at a top price of 9/1 with bet365 to open the scoring. Of those two, Austin is the most potent Saints striker but injury has restricted his involvement this season while Gabbiadini is less prolific but can still be a threat.

On Thursday against Burnley, we landed a great 11/1 win by backing Victor Moses for an anytime goal and you can take him here, in the same market, at a much shorter 11/2 with William Hill. The bookmakers have obviously responded to that goal and we may be pushing our luck to pick it again so instead, we’ll play safer with Olivier Giroud to score in 90 minutes at a top price of 11/8 with bet365.

Other Side Bets

When these two teams met in the league a week ago they produced five goals between them so that will lead to some interest in the overs and unders markets. For Saturday’s game, Over 4.5 is available at 5/1 with bet365 but we probably wouldn’t look to go higher than Over 2.5 which is at a more modest top price of 8/9 with 188Bet.

As for Both Teams to Score, this is available at reasonable best odds of 68/67 with 188Bet again but the fact that Southampton drew a blank against Leicester City on Thursday may be a better indication as to how this match will develop.

Chelsea look to have got over a drop in form and while they are far from their best, we expect a comfortable win for the Blues in normal time. A win for Conte’s men holds no value in the standard betting – there are some enhanced odds deals for new customers around – but we will be backing Chelsea to win to Nil which is available at a better top price of 6/4 with MarathonBet.

We’ll finish with a Correct Score punt of Chelsea 3 Southampton 0 at 10/1 with Sun Bets and remember, all of these tips are for 90 minutes only.

Best Bets

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