Burnley v Chelsea: European Places on the line at Turf Moor

Attention! Actual odds referenced are correct at time of publishing at 12:19 pm April 17, 2018 and are subject to change.

We’ve a very busy midweek in the Premier League with a number of sides catching up on outstanding fixtures due to their exploits in the FA Cup. Manchester City may have already sealed the title but many of these games are likely to have a bearing on relegation or European places at the end of the season.

Perhaps the most important of these comes along on Thursday night with both Burnley and Chelsea harbouring European ambitions. For the Clarets, an upturn in form sees Sean Dyche’s side in seventh and hoping for the final Europa League slot while for Chelsea, a win is vital if Antonio Conte’s men are to keep pressure on fourth placed Spurs in the battle for Champions League football.

Match Odds

As you might expect, the bookies are coming down in favour of the home side in this game with Chelsea clear favourites for the win at best odds of Even Money with Sun Bets. The draw then comes along at a top price of 129/50 while victory for Burnley completes the result market at a best of 18/5 with Unibet.

Chelsea are an odds on prospect with most bookmakers but many would have expected the Blues to be shorter despite conceding home advantage. Form, however, suggests that the market is about right with the away side having won three, lost two and drawn one of their last six matches.

Contrast that run with Burnley who are unbeaten in six and have five straight wins coming into this match and we can see that Chelsea have a real challenge on their hands if they are to take the points here. Before we give a match verdict, let’s look at the form players who can decide its destiny.

Individual Goal Scorers

Alvaro Morata

Chelsea players lead things off here but it’s a midfielder who starts as favourite to open the scoring. Eden Hazard is available at best odds of 9/2 with Boylesports to find the net first ahead of strikers Alvaro Morata and Olivier Giroud who both are available at a top price of 5/1 with bet365.

Giroud opened his Chelsea account at the weekend but another man in form is Burnley’s Chris Wood. The New Zealand international has a healthy return of nine goals from 20 league games for the Clarets and can be picked up at a best of 13/2 with bet365 once again.

Other options in this market include Burnley’s pair of Ashley Barnes and Sam Voakes both of whom have netted important goals for their side and can be backed at the same top price of 15/2 with bet365. For Chelsea, Willian has been a danger from midfield and could provide an option at best odds of 7/1 with Boylesports while for a longer priced punt, Victor Moses could be generous at his best of 25/1 with William Hill and BetBright.

Team selection is always key to identifying a first goal scorer and that’s why we often look to the anytime market as an alternative. There are doubts over whether Giroud or Morata will start for Chelsea but we will avoid the strikers and look to Victor Moses. The midfielder has been nominated as his club’s player of the season and because our other tips here have fairly short prices, we’ll balance those with an anytime goal for Moses at best odds of 11/1 with Unibet and 888Sport.

Other Side Bets

As always we’ll deal with the most popular side bets first and we have Both Teams to Score listed at Even Money with William Hill and 10Bet. It’s quite rare for this option not to be quoted at odds-on prices and form suggests we should add this to the betslip.

Burnley have scored at least one goal in all of their last six matches while Chelsea have failed to find the net just once in the same period and that was away to the mighty Barcelona so while we’re not expecting a particularly open game, those stats make BTTS a confirmed tip.

In the overs and unders betting, Over 2.5 goals is at best odds of 7/5 with Black Type and once again, that’s a reasonable figure for a bet that frequently dips under Even Money. Alternatively, for those wanting longer odds we would suggest a Correct Score of 2-1 in favour of Chelsea at a top price of 17/2 with bet365 and 10Bet.

Burnley’s excellent form has seen Chelsea, who may have one eye on their FA Cup semi final at the weekend, drift in the markets but they remain the better side and we expect Conte’s men to grind out a win. It might not be pretty but it would be profitable and that’s all that really matters.

Best Bets

  • Chelsea to win at Even Money with Sun Bets
  • Both Teams to Score at Even Money with William Hill
  • Victor Moses to score anytime at 11/1 with 888Sport
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