Brazilian Grand Prix: Hamilton the Champ but the Race isn’t Run

We’ve known the outcome of the 2017 F1 Drivers’ Championship for some time but that conviction was made reality last weekend as Lewis Hamilton secured the finish he needed in Mexico to claim his fourth World Title.

The English driver has dominated the second half of the season but there are two Grand Prix still to be run and the first of these goes off in Brazil this weekend.

Upset on The Cards?

There may well be value in these races too because, while Hamilton took the ultimate prize, the Mercedes man could only come home in seventh place on a day where Max Verstappen took his second win in the last four GPs.

Despite that, it’s a familiar market for Brazil and one where Lewis Hamilton starts as the red hot favourite at best odds of 5/4 with Paddy Power. There is a significant gap to the second favourite Sebastian Vettel but this is the first time that we’ve seen the champion at an odds-against price for some time and that reflects Hamilton’s showing in Mexico.

The value could therefore come from Vettel who is quoted at 15/4 with Unibet and 888Sport while last week’s winner Verstappen can be picked up at a top price of 9/2 with SportingBet. There’s definitely some momentum with the Red Bull driver who had shortened ahead of Mexico last week so those figures show plenty of interest.

Behind Pole

Among the chasing pack is Daniel Ricciardo who is on offer at a best of 9/1 with Paddy Power and while the Australian won in Azerbaijan earlier this year, that is his solitary success of the campaign so far.

Valtteri Bottas has seen a marginally more productive year with two wins yet Hamilton’s partner at Mercedes is out at a top price of 12/1 with William Hill and Paddy Power. Elsewhere, Ferrari’s Kimi Raikkonen is at best odds of 25/1 with Paddy Power before we get to a host of drivers who come in at 1000/1 across most of the sportsbooks.

Previous Records

The Brazilian Grand Prix has been on the Formula One calendar since 1972 although it hasn’t always been hosted by its current Interlagos circuit. The great Alain Prost holds the overall record for wins here with six and from the current list of drivers, only Sebastian Vettel, with two victories, is a multiple winner.

Lewis Hamilton did, however, take the chequered flag here 12 months ago but over the years he has frequently lost out to Vettel and his former Mercedes team mate Nico Rosberg. Could that be pattern be set to continue or will the favourite deliver the profits here?

Betting Options

Lewis Hamilton

As always, there is a host of side bets available if you want to add to, or avoid the straight result bet. Vettel looked to be the man in charge in Mexico as he claimed pole position and returned the fastest lap and that may be worth keeping in mind as we look ahead to Brazil.

The Fastest Lap market naturally shows Lewis Hamilton as the favourite at 7/4 with William Hill and Unibet but despite winning the Drivers’ Championship, the Englishman has only achieved this feat on seven occasions in 18 Grand Prix this season.

Admittedly that’s still more than any other driver but this is where Vettel has contributed well with five fastest lap times. Vettel is therefore a strong option for this bet at a top price of 14/5 with William Hill and 10Bet while the in-form Verstappen will tempt some punters at a distant best of 8/1 with Stan James.

Elsewhere, the Pole Position market is one that is similar in terms of the line up with Hamilton leading the way at 5/7 with 10Bet and Sport Pesa. That is therefore much shorter than the Champion’s straight win price of 5/4 but it’s a fair one when you consider that the Englishman has taken pole in five of the last seven races.

Other options in this particular market include Vettel, who was on pole in Mexico, at 4/1 with bet365 and Winner Sports, Verstappen at 13/2 with Winner Sports and Sporting Bet, plus Bottas at 7/1 with bet365 and William Hill.

Based on stats however, this is one market we’ll avoid as we’re edging towards Hamilton but 5/7 just looks too short.


Back to the race itself and this could be very open: Will the fact that Lewis Hamilton has already won the Drivers’ Championship have any bearing on the outcome? That’s the question that many punters will be asking and the seventh place in Mexico brings that question into sharper focus.

However, we feel that Hamilton will be as committed as ever and will want to end 2017 in a positive manner. There will be no change in approach and as the better driver in the field, we expect him to come through at odds that are better than they have been for some weeks.

Best Bets:

  • Lewis Hamilton to win at 5/4 with Paddy Power
  • Sebastian Vettel to record the fastest lap at 14/5 with William Hill
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