Bet on the Next French President
For anyone interested in politics, this has to be the most fascinating time in recent memory. 2016 gave us Brexit and President Donald Trump, two outcomes that shocked the world in very different ways while the New Year has already seen an election in the Netherlands and there is more to come.
Not only did 2016’s results surprise everyone involved, they also came in against the odds provided by the bookmakers. For many years, political betting was seen as a very predictable pastime but we now know that shocks can happen and that fact will see even more interest in the markets for 2017.
Great Britain will go to the polls on June 8 but before that, we have the French Presidential election where the far right are battling for power and to cause another upset against the odds. Meanwhile, the favourite in the markets, Emmanuel Macron, is in the unusual position of having no backing from a major political party.
Macron’s En Marche, is a third way party and the fact that they are ahead in the polls could be seen as a shock in itself so let’s now take a look at the latest prices.
Macron is a very short odds on with all bookies and at the time of writing, can be backed at a best of 1/6 with William Hill. Meanwhile, Le Pen is the outside bet at a top price of 11/2 with 32Red and 888Sport. It’s a straight fight between those two with no side betting available right now so who is going to win it?
Looking at Trends
Based on that market and, perhaps more importantly, the relevant French polls, you would have to say that Macron and En Marche are racing certainties to be elected. However, there was a time when you would have said the same thing about Hillary Clinton being made next US President and Great Britain voting to remain in the European Union.
In August 2015, the average price on Donald Trump to be elected a year later peaked at around 25/1 and even in the last few days before the vote, you could have still obtained around 5/1 with many bookmakers. The odds on Brexit weren’t quite as dramatic but the UK voting ‘remain’ was still a favourite option and a number of punters went on to clean up on the eventual ‘leave’ vote.
But, as we all know from any form of betting, previous trends are not an indication of what may come in the future. And, in light of recent, rather confusing news from the Le Pen camp, perhaps the favourite is the best option this time.
Out in Front
Macron and En Marche received the most votes in the first round as he and the National front eliminated the rest of the opposition. It now becomes a straight fight between these two so it was a surprise, to say the least, to see that Le Pen had stepped down as leader of her party.
She is still in the running for the Presidency and some commentators suggest it’s a move to pick up more floating voters from the parties that have been eliminated. Macron meanwhile, continues as planned based on a ‘green’ ethic that includes plans to harness the power of renewable energy.
Early polls released in the wake of Le Pen’s announcement suggest there is little change and the bookmakers are unwavering in their support of Emmanuel Macron as the clear favourite. The election closes on May 7 so there is still time to place a bet but will the favourite prevail this time or will we see a continuing of the trend for upsetting the political betting markets?